A catastrophic market collapse saw it tumble dramatically from a steady-looking $9,700 to $8,300 overnight in the second half of September, and its efforts to push back up have been weak, to say the least. Despite the possibility of support forming around the $8k line, a failure to reach $8,500 with any real conviction almost certainly spells out a fragile market outlook. There was a distant echo of optimism earlier this week with a rally of six per cent in trades, but that minimal effort appears to have stirred no action whatsoever.
Again, this could be a clear signal that beleaguered bitcoin is hopelessly dad-dancing its way across the trapdoor, eyes closed and obliviously tuned in to the old hits from its glory days.
The buying volume and, therefore, market interest, simply isn’t there. Without that in place it is likely that a gentle slide is on the cards to test if any support between $7,800 and $8,000 is waiting to catch it.
Seasoned analysts, though, will no doubt be aware that support around this level is historically feeble. This, in turn, could lead to a downward breach and an ever-darkening uncertainty.
If history repeats itself – as it often, but not always, does in most markets – the next two targets waiting on a possible descent are likely to be around $7,300 or $6,800. Amateur historians will also point to the shockingly low $5,900 as a possibility too. After all, this is the mark that carried BTC through much of the 2018 bear market.
A look at the momentum of the relative strength index (RSI) would back up any negative thoughts from the naysayers. It currently sits at 35 – the berth it took up in late 2018 when BTC suffered an almighty stumble and hit the pavement hard below $5,000.
As always, a word of caution reminds us this market is persistently full of surprises, and anything could happen.